War and Economy in Syria: A Socioeconomic Analysis up to Julani’s Ascendancy

Abstract

This study examines the socioeconomic dimensions of the Syrian conflict from the outbreak of the Arab Spring in 2011 to the political transition that followed the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in 2024. The research investigates whether the Syrian conflict is more effectively explained through the Greed and Grievance framework or the Frustration-Aggression Theory of armed conflict. Specifically, it addresses the following questions: (1) What socioeconomic factors contributed to the outbreak and persistence of the Syrian civil war? (2) To what extent do the Greed and Grievance and Frustration-Aggression theories explain the Syrian case? and (3) How have economic inequality, youth unemployment, corruption, and democratic deficit shaped patterns of conflict and instability in Syria? Employing a qualitative and analytical research design, the study draws upon secondary sources, conflict literature, policy reports, and socioeconomic indicators to assess the drivers of unrest and violence. The findings suggest that while elements of grievance are evident, the Syrian conflict is more comprehensively explained through the Frustration-Aggression framework. Prolonged economic hardship, limited employment opportunities, entrenched corruption, political exclusion, and restrictions on political participation generated widespread frustration that eventually transformed into collective mobilization and violent conflict. The study concludes that socioeconomic deprivation and institutional failure played a central role in shaping the trajectory of the Syrian crisis and contributed significantly to the erosion of social stability and state legitimacy.